Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election and is set to become the 47th president of the United States. This Republican victory likely contains information about expected stock returns, but it may not be the information that you expect to hear.

An interesting empirical fact is that the historical equity risk premium going back to 1927 has been much higher under Democratic than Republican presidents. This has been referred to as the Presidential Puzzle, and its explanation may have implications for expected U.S. stock returns today.